I’m pretty shocked by an article appearing in today’s New York Times Magazine. One the featured essays tried to support the notion of a rebounding economy by downplaying the loss of jobs in major sectors and demonstrating a growth of jobs in the hidden US service sector. Specfically, the article stated that the Bureau of Labor & Statistics tests job losss in such sectors like manufacturing, technology, and engineering to cheaper overseas providers, instead of honing in on jobs gained in masseuses, spas, and manicurist shops.
I’m not joking. The article referenced the American Massage Association when it spoke of the tripling number of registered masseuses and spa employees. Yes.
I first thought it was a largely-sarcastic article using the ludicrous as a way to demonstrate that we’re not only losing jobs in important sectors to overseas but that the trillion-dollar trade deficit isn’t getting reduced in the process. I thought the article was eventually going to end on the ideal that we’ve got to stop giving training and financial support to service jobs that don’t help in producing buy-end goods that can be exported. Instead, the article was dead serious, and really tried to use spa growth as an indicator that there is NOTHING to worry about. That even though other countries are picking up jobs from our manufacturing and software development, those people here who lost those jobs can always find work giving massages.
I figured the editors of the NYT were on crack for letting that thing run. I can’t wait to see the number of Letters To The Editors ripping on the author. How can she seriously write that we’re not too worry because the invisible hand of market demand is pushing us from creating tangible, exportable goods to become personal relaxation experts? How many Shiatsu professionals vs. automobiles are we importing from Asia?
The cause for alarm is that by losing jobs to overseas we’re stuck with having to win clearhandedly in fewer sectors, including education, medicine, science, technology, and entertainment. The latter is crucial, I think, because it what gets shoved down the throat of the rest of the world. It’s what marks the US imprint on the foreign household and street level. God help us if the US is really turning into a country of masseuses. 🙂
Sam
Service-sector
I remember reading a similar article not long ago in a local paper, where they indicated the economy was just fine because we had so much growth in the service sector.
I’ve got news for them: we’re playing a zero-sum game in the service industry. The only thing that helps us towards non-zero-sum is that we’re getting more efficient at certain things: getting more work per worker.
China’s great social experiment, limiting the majority Han chinese to only 1 child per couple, has had a very interesting side-effect or two. Today’s Chinese woman is self-assured, an only child, with four grandparents and two parents looking to her for their futures. They are smart, motivated, and waiting until their thirties to have their sole child, spending their vital twenties working hard to improve their lot in neo-capitalist Communist society.
I’m not into fear-mongering, but China is in the position the U.S. was in in the late 1700’s and early 1800’s. They are enjoying an era of mostly peaceful expansion, largely ignored or only worried about by other world powers. Their neighbors are smaller, less-populated, and weaker militarily and economically than they are. They are blessed with a great deal of mineral and agricultural prowess on a large land mass. Their rising generation is interested in expanding their personal wealth, and willing to go to great lengths to do it. And, very similarly to the U.S. at that time, the general population happily ignores the copyrights and patents of inventions from other countries, imitating and improving upon inventions from abroad as well as creating their own tech.
Today, here in the U.S. we still regard China as a third-world country. I think that’s a mistaken notion, and within twenty years if we don’t work hard on keeping our lead in technology, we’ll be the ones playing catch-up to their innovative prowess. I don’t think we’re at any risk of reverting to third-world status ourselves any time soon (with all that entails: squalid huts, lack of running water, no autos, etc.), but if we allow ourselves to lapse into a mostly service-oriented economy, we’ll find ourselves ripe for economic or military invasion in short order.
Here in the U.S., we have a lot going for us: geographic isolation with relatively easily-defended borders (except our massive northern border, but the Canucks, bless them, have long been extremely friendly with us in a “short guy is friends with the big strong guy” way), a historical and current trend towards constant innovation, with encouragement from a semi-capitalist society which rewards the meritocrat much more than the aristocrat, and a “get out of the way” economic philosophy that fosters economic expansion over most other factors.
But one day, we’ll find our borders crowded, our green places limited, and our natural resources squandered. At that point, we’ll be very much like Western Europe: landlocked, no room to expand, no room to grow population-wise either. The choices will be war, space expansion, or a dramatic shift in focus from expansion to maintenance. And our way of life will be very different. Not necessarily better or worse, but very, very different.
—
Matthew P. Barnson
Made In China
2 years later…
I went shopping today. For a guy who hates shopping, I surprised myself by spending 3 hours on a Saturday in retail. Here’s what was bought during the shopping spree at Mall of America:
-Workout shorts -Sandals -A new briefcase for work -Short-sleeve shirt -Long-sleeve shirt
This was picked up at four different retailers. Each item was Made In China. In fact, everything I pulled from the shelf was Made In China. I started moving through store after store, randomly selected items for inspection. Almost all of it was Made In China. When I got home I rummaged through the tags on my clothes and…Made In China was everywhere.
I realize this is nothing new. Made In China is not a recent fad. However, I find it interesting that for someone who has never been to China, or has no real interest in visiting China, I sure purchase a lot of things made in that country. Maybe some of you have spent time in China (Daniel, I can’t remember if your mission was China or Japan?). Their country must be one big factory with a massive shipping port labeled, ‘Take Everything Here And Send It To The United States And Thank Them For The Generous Support.’
Currently, there’s a lot of talk about U.S. dependence on the Middle East for oil, even though current levels of oil imports from the Middle East is around 20% of total annual consumption. I wonder what the percentage looks like of U.S. imported textiles from China. How dependent is the U.S. on China?
How dependent are we on Made In China?
More than you think…
…and not just because of the textiles.
China is, I believe, the biggest holder of American debt. When they talk about these huge budget deficits, that money has to come from somewhere. Some of it comes from government bonds bought by Americans, but a crapload of it comes from China and Japan. If they got together and decided to cut us off, it could be disastrous for the US economy.
That scares me a lot more than the t-shirts.
— Ben
China is Out
5 years later…
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/08/business/worldbusiness/08yuan.html?em
China is out.
I re-read my original post and am still wondering about how terrible this whole economic crash came about. How blind were the elected leaders responsible for standing up and saying, “We can’t go on rubbing each others’ backs and thinking it’s okay.” Oh wait, Bush was in office. Right. At least Greenspan had come out and declared the U.S. standard of living at risk. Too bad nobody was listening. Except us.
I don’t want to read like a pessimist, but in our (unfortunately) consumer-driven economy, the only way to turn off the credit feed and rehabituate folks to a new standard of living is to start at the import/export aggregate. It’s time to stop exporting our military and instead start selling actual buy-end, tangible products to other parts of the world. It’s time to stop policing the world as the dominant superpower and instead of selling our ideology, sell products that people around the world actually care about receiving.