The Washington Redskins and the U.S. President

So I came across a little-known (well, little-known to ME) factoid while surfing the web today looking for information about the candidates this year (from this page about silly polls):

THE WASHINGTON REDSKINS RULE. This one has an impressive winning streak–for 72 years, the victory or defeat of the Washington Redskins in their last game before the election has predicted whether the incumbent party holds the White House. If the Redskins lose or tie, the incumbent party loses the election. If the Redskins win, so does the incumbent party. By any measure the accuracy of the Redskin rule is notable. It has correlated with presidential electoral outcomes in 18 of the past 18 elections back to Franklin Roosevelt in 1932.

So I came across a little-known (well, little-known to ME) factoid while surfing the web today looking for information about the candidates this year (from this page about silly polls):

THE WASHINGTON REDSKINS RULE. This one has an impressive winning streak–for 72 years, the victory or defeat of the Washington Redskins in their last game before the election has predicted whether the incumbent party holds the White House. If the Redskins lose or tie, the incumbent party loses the election. If the Redskins win, so does the incumbent party. By any measure the accuracy of the Redskin rule is notable. It has correlated with presidential electoral outcomes in 18 of the past 18 elections back to Franklin Roosevelt in 1932.
…the “Washington Redskin Rule” gets a little more respect. The probability of a Redskin victory or defeat correctly forecasting the presidential election 18 elections in a row has been calculated to be about one in 260 million. For those who like to mix football with politics, the Redskins’ last game before the election is with the Packers on October 31.

So it looks like we have a 1 in 2 chance of forecasting a 1 in 260 million chance here! Who do you think’s going to win — the Packers, or the Redskins?

I hate to say it, but as much as I’m planning on voting for Kerry, I really want the ‘Skins to beat the Packers October 31, so I’m going with Redskins…

19 thoughts on “The Washington Redskins and the U.S. President”

  1. Go Packers!

    Sorry boys, football aside, that’s just too cool of a statistic to break a 72-year streak. Regardless of how the Redskins finish out the season, I’d love for them to lose that one game.

    — Ben Schuman Mad, Mad Tenor

  2. Warped Logic

    Unfortunately, the logic in the above picks is warped because of some bad assumptions. Everyone has incorrectly assumed that the election is more important than the outcome of a Redskins game.

    Please.

    Joe Gibbs is back baby!!!!

    1. Catch – 22

      Oh, the irony… Young Samuel and I have a bet…when the Redskins & Ravens play this year, if the Redskins win, me & my family have to visit Sam in Minny, and vice versa.

      But given the choice between Bush and Kerry (which is kinda like the choice between an indian rub burn or a full-fledged wedgie…) I’d choose Bush. Which means I’s have to root against the Ravens, which just ain’t gonna happen.

      I guess I’ll be rooting for a tie, and an unforeseen Independent election winner.

      My $.02 Weed

      P.S. Joe may be back, but Ray’s still here 🙂

      1. Was That Our Bet?

        I thought we bet on the season? Maybe you’re right. After all these years, I lose track of what the bet is.

        October 10th is the date.

        Realistically, if the Skins win, Shani and I will have to come out to B’more anyway, seeing that Child #2 will be born at that time.

        1. Hmm

          We started out betting on the season, unril I informed you that the Ravens and Redskins played head-to-head. Then the bet became on just the game.

          We could always come out a little after the baby’s born…who doesn’t want to see Minneapolis in the winter?

          My $.02 Weed

    1. Mr. Anonymous is right!

      So I did the math, too, and came up with the same figure. Silly me for not checking my statistics before posting the word-for-word story from another site.

      One in 262,144 sounds like fairly remote chances, but when it comes to statistics, even if that penny came up heads on the toss 18 times in a row, the next time you flip it you still have a 50/50 chance of tails.

      Which, actually, feels a whole lot like this election. Neither one of the candidates has a compelling majority in the polls yet!

      —
      Matthew P. Barnson

  6. Redskins and the Election

    I first heard about this little “factoid” earlier this year, when John Kerry was campaigning in Green Bay. He said that he ordinarily would cheer for the Patriots or the Redskins but, in this case, he would be cheering for the Packers, of course! I will be hollering louder than usual for Brett & Company on Oct. 31st AND voting for Kerry-Edwards two days after that…two winning teams!! Susan O. Eagle River, WI

    1. Redskins Loss = Kerry Win

      I first heard of this back during the 2000 election. That was the first comment the guys on TV said. I thought, that’s bull. The Skins lost, though. And so did Gore.

  7. Skins

    Im a HUGE Skins fan. Grew up in the area, have loved them my entire life, I’m just a die-hard fan

    But on Oct. 31 I am rooting for Green Bay. The election is waaaaay more important than a win in an already losing season!

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